Yesterday, the Phillies signed starting pitcher Roberto Hernandez to a one year deal worth $4.5 million with $1.5 million in incentives. People may forget or not know but when he was Fausto Carmona in 2007, he placed fourth in the American League Cy Young Award voting, but he has never had a season close to that since. Last season Hernandez pitched 151 innings with a 4.89 ERA and a 4.63 FIP, but a xFIP of 3.60. Those numbers are not astonishing in the least, the xFIP is lower because xFIP is more in favor of ground ball pitchers and Hernandez induces a lot of ground balls. Since 2006, Hernandez is 6th in Major League Baseball with a ground ball rate of 57.5%. Yesterday, Cory Seidman pointed out in a tweet that since 2006 Hernandez has the lowest line drive rate out of any pitcher in baseball. Another stat to point out is Hernandez has the 11th lowest fly ball rate since 2006 which is good since his home ballpark for 2014 will be Citizens Bank Park and that rate is at 25.8%. This signing has me wondering if the guy the Phillies brought in to analyze the statistical side of baseball has been making an impact because this is not a typical Ruben Amaro Jr. move. This could end up being a very underrated signing, and if not, Hernandez is only signed to a one year deal not worth too much, so low risk, high reward.
Hernandez's raw stats based off of wins and loses (6-13 in 2013) and ERA does not look promising and this recent signing by the Phillies is not a signing that will get fans super excited but if you dig a little bit deeper into Hernandez's stats it will show that he has the potential to be a decent pitcher for the Phillies. He will not be an ace but he could fill a hole in the rotation and hopefully he will eat up innings and have a successful year along the way. If Hernandez continues throwing ground balls like he has in past seasons than I expect him to be a successful number three or four starter in the rotation.
